Monday, December 7, 2009
New Comment from "The Secret" of Management
When I was at New Madrid last week a mechanic offered his thoughts on preventing a repeat equipment failure. This item had been reviewed by the OEM and recommendations had been made, but I think his suggestion was excellent, not just from a practical functionality standpoint but it was also very inexpensive, almost free!
Don't forget to ask the question - someone just might have a better idea.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Is it 1979 All Over Again?
1979 may offer a glimpse into 2009, and we may learn something about the current recession by looking back at how the industry fared in post-1979 recession of the early 1980s.
Life in the late 1970s
In the mid-1970s, electric utilities in the United States were struggling to keep up with the growth in electricity demand. Nationwide demand was creating shortages of critical plant equipment such as turbines, generators, and large transformers. Prices were increasing rapidly, and with rapid load growth utilities found it hard to keep up with demand. As a result, they were making commitments for ever-larger plants, more frequently.
At Associated Electric, each generating unit was larger than the last. The 1960s ended with the completion of Thomas Hill Units 1 and 2. In the 1970s New Madrid Units 1 and 2 were completed in 1972 and 1977. So, at the end of the 1970s it was not at all unusual to consider adding Thomas Hill Unit 3, Associated's largest generating unit, planned to come on-line in 1982. In addition to the coal-based projects, Associated made commitments for a share in a large nuclear power plant, the Black Fox Nuclear project.
In the last 50 years in the U.S. there has never been a significant rise in the price of oil that was NOT followed by a recession. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 was just such an event. Oil prices shot up, driving inflation, and the US Federal Reserve enacted a tight monetary policy in response. This led to the extended 22-month recession of 1980-1982.
Increases in energy prices led to increased conservation by consumers, with the result that, by the time Thomas Hill Unit 3 was completed in 1982, not a single megawatt of its output was needed to serve customer demand. The 670 MW unit was entirely surplus to Associated's needs.
We weren't the only utility in this situation. Many of our neighbors had also made commitments for large generating units and the entire region found itself with extreme surplus capacity.
Moving into the 1980s
In order to pay for the increasing fuel costs and unneeded generating capacity, Associated enacted a series of rate increases throughout the early 1980s. The rate increases in turn resulted in further reductions in the rate of growth of customer demand.
In the years that followed in the early- to mid-1980s, Associated found that it could replace the output of its coal units at a price equivalent to running them. There was no longer a reason to spend extra money to shorten scheduled maintenance outages. Policies were enacted to suspend the use of overtime to shorten outages. A program known as “intermittent operation” was initiated at the New Madrid plant, in which one of the two units was shut down for economic reasons, and some of the workforce experienced a layoff.
Then and Now
Compare this situation of 1979 to our current situation. Since 1999 we have been building new generating capacity at a rapid pace. Intense worldwide competition for equipment such as turbines, generators, and transformers resulted rapid escalation in the cost of new plants. Strength in the rural Midwest economy kept customer demand increasing at a constant, reliable pace. Associated planned its next large generating unit (first Norborne, then Chouteau 2) and considered a commitment to a share of a large nuclear unit.
To cover increasing fuel and environmental-control costs, Associated enacted a series of rate increases over the past four years, putting additional pressure on customer demand.
There was not an Iranian Revolution, but in 2008 U.S. oil prices reached an all-time high following the announcement of Iranian missile tests. While the recession that followed is largely blamed on the collapse of the housing market, collateralized debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities, the increase in energy prices was a significant trigger to the mortgage meltdown.
Now one year later we find that customer loads are no longer growing at their former pace. The large generating unit under construction at Chouteau 2 is now expected to be entirely surplus at the time of its completion in 2011. Our participation in a previously planned nuclear unit has been suspended, and the equipment for our planned 100 MW peaker at Essex 2 has been placed in storage.
It is likely that we will find our neighbors with similar surplus capacity. New large coal-based units were recently completed in southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska, and other units are nearing completion in Kansas City, southwest Missouri, northeast Arkansas, and western Illinois.
Even today our coal-units do not have the same value they had just a few months ago. Natural gas prices have collapsed, driven by low demand and high storage reserves. While we cannot yet buy energy for the same price as production, we are getting very close to those levels.
So, is it likely that we will see the situation of the early and mid-1980s repeat itself in 2010 through 2015? Might we see years of low customer demand growth? Might we find ourselves with the ability to buy surplus energy from our neighbors at prices competitive with our existing units? Might we find ourselves shutting a coal unit down for economic reasons? How might this impact utility negotiations with labor unions, railroads, and coal companies?
Exceptions
There are two additional significant factors that were not present in the 1980s: shale gas and carbon-dioxide regulation. Massive domestic reserves of natural gas trapped in shale formations, formerly considered uneconomic to recover, are now being extracted at very low incremental costs, a result of improved horizontal drilling technology. These reserves will put a price cap on natural gas, keeping our fleet of high-efficiency gas-based units competitive with some coal-based units. And the currently debated cap-and-trade bill, if passed, will further increase all energy prices, further depressing demand and placing coal-based units at an even greater disadvantage.
This future may NOT come to pass. This current recession could end and we could return to business as usual. But, if the current forces continue, we will need to maintain tighter cost control and top-tier unit performance in order to remain competitive in the market. Those who can do this well will survive. Those who cannot may find themselves looking for work. We want to be the former.
What do you think – are we back in the 1980s or will the roaring 1990s return? I would love to hear your comments.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
So now that I'm back, what next?
Emphasis on our core mission – maintenance and reliability of our power plants, especially our coal-based units.
Emphasis on cost consciousness – this is a key part of our mission and vision. I want to make sure we are all living it. One objective of my training was to gain a broader industry perspective. After all the case studies and exposure to classmates from 160 businesses in 44 countries I have developed an increased appreciation for the importance of continued vigilance on costs.
Exploring the application of Social Networks – I had the opportunity to experiment with social networking tools such as Facebook, Linkedin, and blogs during my training, and I have seen how these tools work to improve communication and “flatten” the organization. I see a high potential for using these and similar methods for online collaboration across multiple locations. I am very excited about some new Sharepoint tools that will soon be available on our office intranet. They will provide us with in-house capabilities similar to those available today on the unsecure commercial sites.
Continually explore alternate and divergent ideas –it is easy for a business to fall prey to groupthink and complacency and miss significant opportunities and threats. We studied a number of examples of human-system failures, from Everest mountain climbers to NASA engineers to managers of financial services companies. In every example, humans are humans, and we share some common biases that often prevent us from seeing events outside our expectations. I will be using some new techniques to lessen the likelihood of becoming the next Harvard failure case study.
I am eager to hear from each of you on these ideas. Please feel free to share your comments online or by email. Think of it this way: if you hesitate to share an idea that you think could help us improve, you may be delaying our progress!
Friday, November 13, 2009
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Back Home!
Friday, October 30, 2009
Final class, final day, final advice from Harvard (alternate title: Why would I ride a motorcycle to Boston and back?)
to weep is to risk appearing sentimental,
to reach out to another is to risk involvement,
to expose your feelings is to risk exposing your true self,
to place your ideas and dreams before a crowd is to risk their loss,
to love is to risk not being loved in return,
to live is to risk dying,
to hope is to risk despair,
to try is to risk failure.
But risk must be taken because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing. The person who risks nothing does nothing, has nothing, is nothing.
He may avoid suffering and sorrow, but he cannot learn, feel, change, grow, or live. Chained by his certitude he is a slave who has forfeited all freedom.
Only a person who risks is free.
-William Arthur Ward
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Nearing the End (one day more, one more day, one day more)
- whether to take personal advantage of a “corporate opportunity”
- responding to a fire that destroys your manufacturing operations
- handling a strike over labor contracts at a newly acquired plant
- managing environmental, community, government, and human rights issues
- how to reward top management for closing a proposed merger
- responding to a low-ball hostile takeover bid
- dealing with a potentially serious health risk in a major product line
- responding to a serious global health crisis
- formulating an investment strategy that advances sustainable development
- preventing organizational drift and creating an effective governance system
- deciding on executive pay and responding to activist investors
- dealing with illegality and fostering organizational compliance
- whether to accept a “politically connected” candidate into an internship program (List courtesy Professor Lynne Paine.)
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Steve Jobs - Commencement Address to Stanford University
As we wind our coursework down this week, we were invited to watch this Youtube video. Several classmates found it inspiring. If you have an extra 15 minutes to burn, you might want to watch it.
His advice? "Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish".
What do you think? Comments?
Michael Porter on the Competitiveness of Nations
His main idea on national competitiveness is that it is not what you do, but how productively you do it that determines success. While national prosperity can begin with natural resource endowments, such as oil reserves, simply selling your endowments will not necessarily make your nation rich (the average per-capita annual income in Saudi Arabia is only $3000). To succeed, nations need a good social infrastructure in terms of education systems, health care systems, and good law enforcement. A stable national government, with sound fiscal and monetary policy, is also essential.
Relying on endowments can actually hurt an economy. The easy access to trade revenue allows for low productivity and bad government practices to be masked, leading to continuing inefficiency. In resource-rich countries, the fight is often over how to divide the revenue pie, not over how to make the overall pie larger through greater efficiency.
These same concepts can be applied at a more micro-economic level. Consider the competitiveness of a state, or even a region such as the Missouri bootheel. It is not enough just to have great farmland that can grow cotton and beans; the people of the bootheel will not be prosperous as a whole until their institutions (education, law enforcement, etc.) are also prosperous.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Leading Change
Today we are completing a series of classes on leading organizational change. We have had the privilege to hear from senior executives at several firms that have completed sensational turnarounds: a major South African bank, a Japanese car manufacturer, the largest maker of set-top boxes for cable and satellite reception, a European beer manufacturer, and the UK’s largest newspaper company, to mention a few. These sessions have given us the chance to hear from these individuals, not only regarding what worked well, but also to hear from them and question them about the part that doesn’t always get discussed in the business books, which is where they made their mistakes in implementation and what they learned from the experience. I am very excited about the opportunity to apply these lessons to our plant maintenance activities. At Associated we have made fantastic advances in plant performance from the late 1990’s through about 2004, but since then we have struggled to break records, and our competitiveness with our peers has slipped. When I return I hope to begin the process within our division which will return these plants to a position of excellence. This effort will require cooperation from our entire team. Our employees are the day-to-day guardians of the members’ assets, and they will be the people who will ultimately enable us to succeed.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Investment advice from an old business book...
Saturday, October 24, 2009
What is equity worth to a cooperative?
How should we value the member’s equity held by AECI? One approach would price the equity as if it were being held by a publicly traded, investor-owned utility.
When we retain earnings at AECI we are essentially investing our member’s money in the cooperative for them. Our returns that our customers expect from their investments depends on the riskiness of the investment. If they choose to invest their money in a savings account, they would expect very low returns, but they would be taking very low risk. An investment in a startup company may provide high returns but presents much greater risk.
We could estimate a value for the members’ equity by comparing it with an alternate investment of similar risk. Imagine if, instead of investing their cash in AECI, our members could have invested in a neighboring investor-owned utility, an investment which should present risk simlar to an investment in AECI.
The value (cost) of equity in a publicly-traded company is determined using this formula:
Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Relative Riskiness of IOUs * Average Stock Market Risk Premium
The Risk Free Rate (T-Bill rate) is currently near zero, but over the past 80 years it has averaged 3.8%. In just the last 20 years (ending 2008) it averaged 4.25%.
The relative riskiness of a stock relative to the market can be computed using regression and is known as the stock’s “beta”. The beta of our neighboring utilities is 0.72 for Ameren, 0.79 for Great Plains Energy, and 0.77 for Empire District Electric (showing that Empire and Great Plains are considered a higher risk investment than Ameren). The overall average beta for utilities over a 30-year period has been about 0.75.
The average large company stock market return over the last 80 years has been 11.7%, which represents a 7.9% Average Stock Market Risk Premium (the difference between 11.7 and 3.8).
Using these figures, the long-run cost of equity for a large Midwestern utility should be:
Cost of Equity = 3.8 + (0.75 * 7.9) = 9.725% (say about 10% in round numbers).
What do you think of this approach? Does it make any sense? Should this be our new discount rate? This higher number would bias us toward shorter-term projects, but maybe that is a better approach. I would love to hear your comments.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Outsourcing, Offshoring, Anti-Trust and Integrity
We covered a lot of ground today. Outsourcing. Off-shoring. Anti-trust law. And the best part was a visit by Ben Heineman, former Chief General Counsel for GE (he worked for both Jack Welch and Jeffrey Immelt). Now retired, he has written the book “High Performance and High Integrity.” A group of us had a working lunch discussion with him, talking about governance, trust, and the fiduciary duties of the Board.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Bill George on Authentic (True North) Leadership
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Energy Information
They were handing this book out at the Student Union. I’ll see if I can pick up a few tips for when I return.
CEO Compensation Discussion
Today we talked about executive compensation, a topic debated in Board rooms around the world. Overall, the gap in compensation between entry-level employees and CEOs has been widening in the last ten years (especially in the investment banking sector). This has caused lots of concern, and prompted proposals for new legislation to put a limit on compensation. Our case centered on efforts by the AFL-CIO to force boards to submit compensation plans to a shareholder approval vote.
In our discussion, the Europeans were generally much more willing to entertain a cap on executive pay than the Americans. One common practice that gets close to a cap is to use a programmed structure where a maximum 60% gap exists between senior management and the CEO, for example, if the CEO makes $300,000 the top senior manager would make 60% or $180,000.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Net Promoter Score
On a scale of 1 to 10, those answering 9-10 are “promoters”, 7-8 are “passive”, and 0-6 are “detractors”.
This one simple question can give you a quick read on satisfaction, for retail products, for services, for conference presentations, and for employers. Jeffrey Immelt of GE uses this as his number one tracking metric.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, and currently Chairman of the U.S. Economic Recovery Advisory Board
He doesn't mind protecting banks, but thinks the U.S. should have allowed some of the engineered financial firms fail in the wake of the crisis. As it was, only Lehman was allowed to fail. He doesn't believe that banks should be running hedge funds and CDOs. He mentioned that he had a recent discussion with a Harvard professor and former Nobel prize winner. Mr. Volcker stated that he believed that there was no correlation to show that the massive financial engineering products (that led to the financial crisis) had contributed positively towards U.S. economic performance. The professor replied, "No, but intellectually it is a lot of fun." Too bad that this intellectual economic experiment led to a crash in the world economy.
When asked about the future value of the dollar, at first he dodged the question, on the basis that the former Fed chairman should not offer his opinion of such things. Then he relented and stated that he did NOT believe that the dollar would drop, because China and other nations own far too many (they own 1/2 of our treasury debt) too let the dollar fall. He said, "they may not like the dollar, but where else are they going to put it? In the Euro? No. The Yen? No. The RMB? I don't think China will allow that. So the dollar is going to remain the world currency, because there is still no better option."
On the Fed, "the Federal Reserve Board should not be an economics seminar, it should be a policy-making body." He believes that the Board should not be dominated by economists, but should include non-economists and business leaders.
In case you are wondering (we were) he believes we are in for a long, slow recovery. No quick fix. No surprise.
FBI Director Robert Mueller III
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
A Paparrazzi Moment
Clayton Christensen, author of "The Innovator's Dilemma" and "The Innovator's Solution"
"If the capabilities of the past are what you need for success in the future, stick with them, but, if they are not...."
So, what "core competencies" will be important in the future?
Al Gore's Investment Firm's CEO is teaching us . . . Socially Responsible Investing!
Our case was a debate on whether this firm should invest in ABB-India as they expanded the electric service in India. On the plus side, they would be improving lives by providing basic electric service in an improverished are of India. On the negative, the electricity would be generated almost 100% with coal, increasing global carbon dioxide emissions. Growth of the business (and therefore growth of the stock's value) was expected to be strong. Can you guess what Al Gore's sustainability company decided to do? Wouldn't you think, given their position on global warming, that they would run away from such an investment? No! They put the company on their list, and according to Mr. Blood, the only reason they have not yet invested in the company is because the "returns have not yet been high enough." What do you think of that?
They hope to use their investment position to put pressure on companies to improve their business practices to become more sustainable, "by proxy if necessary." Hmmm...
IBM Strategy Head - Mr. Bruce Harreld
Niall Ferguson - Author of "The Ascent of Money"
Sunday, October 11, 2009
It's just marketing, it's not rocket science . . . or is it?
Saturday, October 10, 2009
The Future of Business Learning
Our discussion became interesting as he offered his opinion on the future of business school education. Last year, 2008, was the 100th anniversary of the Harvard Business School. As part of the celebration of looking back at the last 100 years, he and a colleague were asked to look forward to envision the future of Harvard University. They took their task seriously and undertook what has become a two-year research project into the future of business education.
He first discussed the difference in emphasis between existing business schools on the scale of intellectual Rigor versus practical Relevance. Having previously taught at both Carnegie Mellon and Stanford, he suggested that Harvard has a stronger reputation for Relevance among its peers. Of course he may be biased, but I tend to agree with him.
His research involved a review of hundreds of business school programs and interviews with many corporate CEOs. Based on his research, he and his colleague have written a book, to be released within months, called “Rethinking the MBA”. It will discuss the three key teaching areas for future of business education.
1) Knowing (specific book knowledge, tools and techniques)
2) Doing (how to actually accomplish things outside of the classroom)
3) Being (how to lead groups of people)
In his opinion, business education is unique in that it involves more than just knowing. To be successful in business it is not enough to have book knowledge. As a business leader you MUST accomplish your objectives through the efforts of other people. How people react to you determines to some extent how successful you can be as a leader. He contrasted business education to Law or Medicine or Engineering by saying that business education relies more on the “doing” and “being” skills than just on knowing.
Many business schools focus only on the knowledge and Knowing. This is like teaching someone to swim through lectures and reading. You can read, discuss, and watch videos all day, but that still will not help you to swim when you graduate. There is a reason why we do not teach swimming in a classroom. It is because it is a Doing skill. So is business management.
Their research has discovered techniques now in use at a few schools that truly help to bridge the gap between Knowing and Doing. They have even documented ways that some schools are teaching the Doing skill of innovation.
The third dimension of education in future business schools will be Being skills. This is the skill that some people have which allows them to inspire people, to create trust, to influence and to lead. They have also documented techniques for teaching this skill. In our discussion, Dr. Datar agreed that our use of temporary developmental assignments at Associated Electric achieves the same objective, allowing people to test out some Being skills in real-life situations.
He described four types of critical thinking skills: deductive, inductive, analogical, and integrative thinking, and emphasized the need to teach all types.
When describing the Being skill of leadership, he has documented the change over time from a High Authority/Low Conflict culture towards a developing Low Authority/High Conflict leadership culture. This culture, which is becoming more prevalent in business, requires leadership skills that are different from those that have been taught in the past.
He said that the main challenge facing most MBA students in that in their entire life they have only known people very much like themselves – all very successful, driven, intelligent MBA students. This leaves them ill-prepared to understand what it takes to motivate the broad range of employees (factory workers to phone operators to engineers to accountants) that will be encountered in a typical business. As one CEO that he interviewed put it, “most kids don’t know how to have a conversation with a plumber. They just think of him as someone who shows up to fix the pipes, not as a fellow human being.”
He believes that this gap can be reduced through experiential learning and formal, frequent peer feedback.
He also suggested that we watch the commencement address given by J.K. Rowling to the Harvard business school graduates in 2008. The previous year they had hosted Bill Gates for the commencement address, and when the class of 2008 heard that they were getting an author of children’s books, they were vocally unhappy about the selection. Expectations were low on the day of commencement, but J.K. gave “the most impressive commencement speech ever”. This to him was another example of the Being skill; the ability to synthesize, motivate, and lead, and the kind of skill he would like to see become a routine part of business curricula worldwide.
JK’s commencement address can be viewed in three parts on the links below. The amazing thing she talked to the Harvard MBAs about was failure and imagination, something they probably had never experienced in their life.
JK Rowling Commencement address to Harvard, June 2008
JK Rowling Part 1
JK Rowling Part 2
JK Rowling Part 3
Friday, October 9, 2009
Dinner in the Sukkah
Tonight some of us took a brief break from case studies to walk with some of our Jewish friends to a sukkah. What is a sukkah? It is a temporary tent that Jewish people construct during the annual festival of Sukkot – the festival of Tabernacles or more literally “tents.” The Jews celebrate Sukkot by eating together in temporary tents to remind them of their time in exodus from Egypt and their total reliance on God during those times.
In the sukkah we met with two Rabbi who explained the Jewish traditions surrounding Sukkot, their thoughts on water and wine, and even some interesting talk about the mezuzah. The mezuzah is an ornate case containing a tiny scroll with the shema scripture (Hear O Israel, the Lord is our God, the Lord is One, blessed be the name of His glorious kingdom forever and ever. And you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your might. And these words that I command you today shall be in your heart. And you shall teach them diligently to your children, and you shall speak of them, when you sit at home, and when you walk along the way, and when you lie down and when you rise up. And you shall bind them as a sign on your hand, and they shall be for frontlets between your eyes. And you shall write them on the doorposts of your house and on your gates. -Dueteronomy 6:4-9) As instructed, Jews normally affix this scripture to their doorposts. I had not seen one on the tent, and asked the Rabbi if I had missed it. He explained further the tradition behind the mezuzah and the rabbinical tradition that temporary shelters do not need the mezuzah.
The Jews welcomed about 30 of us, representing many faiths (Christians, Hindus, Muslims, even Jews) into their dwelling, and we shared thoughts and food together.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Bob McDonald, CEO of P&G
1) Everyone wants to succeed – the leader’s job is to help people succeed.
2) Success is contagious – the leader’s job is to catch people succeeding. One success will always lead to another.
3) Put the right people on the right jobs. People like doing what they are good at. They are good at doing what they like. Matching these can lead to better success.
4) Character is the most important trait of a leader. Character means:
- putting the organization’s needs above your own needs;
- taking personal responsibility for failures, giving credit to others for successes.
- Living by your word and actions.
5) Choose the “Harder Right” and not the “Easier Wrong”. This was a slogan from his time at West Point.
6) Ineffective strategy, systems and culture are greater barriers to success than people. Before you blame people, check the systems / culture / strategy the organization supplies to them. It is the leader’s job to improve those.
7) There will be people who will not make it through the journey. It is the leader’s job to help them find another job. As a leader, you need to get to know the person as a person, not just as an employee.
8) Organizations must renew themselves. Growth requires change, and change requires renewal. A leader should supply training and development opportunities for his people to grow.
9) Recruiting is a key priority. Promoting at P&G is done from within the company and performance based.
10) A leader is measured by his / her organization’s performance when he or she is absent or gone. A leader should build the capabilities for the organization. “We want leaders who build watches, not those who tell the time”.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Typical day
After morning exercise at your discretion and breakfast in the cafeteria, we start classes at 8 am. Classes are taught in the "case study" method.. We discuss the business case interactively in class for an hour or so. The cases are usually designed to be gray, not black and white, so there is lots of discussion on both sides of the issue, for example deciding on the appropriate balance of debt and equity in a firm, or how to lead a turnaround, or whether to buy a company or not. The professor moderates the discussion but does not provide an answer. In the last half-hour of the 90 minute class we are usually provided the "answer" (what the company actually did). And then we debate that. The last 10 minutes are lead by the professor in a more typical lecture-style, talking about the relevant theories, pros and cons behind the choices that could have been made.
We then take a half-hour break, and have another 90 minute class, take a lunch hour back in the cafeteria, then another 90 minute class after lunch. In the late afternoon there is sometimes a guest speaker, usually a CEO and Harvard alumnus, speaking and taking questions on their business strategy. Then we get a couple of hours on our own to brief the cases studies for the following day (usually 3 cases with 15 pages plus supplementary exhibits. Financial reports, org charts, market studies, etc).
We then have dinner as a group in the cafeteria and regroup after dinner in our "living group" for two hours or more to discuss the next day's cases.
We retire to our bedrooms, do a little reading or email, and repeat the cycle the next day.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Power for Africa
It’s not every day you get to design an electric supply system from scratch. I am working with one of my colleagues from Nigeria to put together a model for development of the electric power supply system in his country. Despite sitting on large deposits of coal, oil, and gas, there is virtually no central station power in the country, and what little there is operates literally only 20% of the time, so it is almost worthless. The country is running on distributed generation (diesel gensets ) with costs so high that manufacturing is not cost effective, causing high imports and a lack of local jobs. This project will create jobs and electricity. (They are not worried about their carbon footprint just yet.) I am also suggesting a cooperative business model J (couldn’t resist).
Peter Chou, CEO of HTC
Monday, September 28, 2009
It IS Rocket Science...
Today we reviewed the NASA Challenger disaster and the organizational dynamics that allowed NASA staff to ignore an ambiguous but real threat to crew safety. We had the special privilege to discuss the case directly with NASA Chief Structural Engineer Rodney Rocha, who had been involved in the mission.
In Challenger, the shuttle managers ignored signs of an imminent threat, despite repeated warnings from engineering staff. Mr. Rocha share his personal sense of loss and failure, “Until this year, not a single day passed that I didn’t think about the accident. . . I regret not pushing harder, not breaking the door down to get an answer.”
In future classes we will discuss ways to insure that our culture and organizational structure counteracts the human tendency to normalize deviations and underestimate ambiguous threats.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
My Personal Case Study
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Today is Saturday, so what did we do?
We talked at some length about how to address poor employee performance and conduct coaching, with special emphasis on the situation of the employee that is a high performer but just doesn’t fit the corporate culture.
We also talked about the issues surrounding 360 degree performance feedback systems, and how best to utilize them. To this point, we will begin meeting with our individual performance coaches next week, and will each go over the 360 degree feedback that our peers provided before we left for this program.
On Monday we will review the organizational and leadership failures that contributed to the space shuttle Challenger disaster. Harvard has recruited one of the Challenger project managers from NASA to attend our class that day and answer questions. What a great opportunity for us to hear about the issues from someone who was there at the time.
Friday, September 25, 2009
New Poll
Thursday, September 24, 2009
A Boston Perspective on Climate Change
Chick-fil-a Day
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
What do I miss?
I guess the answer is no, not too much.
This is a fantastic opportunity, and I am very fortunate to be able to attend this program. The professors are great, the students are great, and everything is very intellectually stimulating. I am getting exposure to many different points of view. The coffee is great and I don't even have to walk to Starbucks. The more I concentrate on my studies, the faster the time passes by. I now have only 40 days left. Only 40 days, imagine that!
What do I miss? I miss talking to Americans sometimes. My classmates tend to criticize Americans as greedy and wasteful, but I noticed that they don’t seem to mind living our lifestyle. I also notice that they all didn't decide to get their executive education in business management in Europe, or Asia, or Africa, or Australia, or South America.
I also miss talking to Midwesterners. Boston is great but it is not the heart of America.
I actually did "miss" attending the AECI board meeting. This was the first meeting I have missed in over 10 years, but I got over it pretty quick. I will only get one chance at being here and I am going to make the most of it.
I have explained what the abbreviation “MO” means about 130 times (it appears on my nametag). No, I don’t know how the post office came up with that one, but it does give me a chance to pull out my business card with the map on the back and explain just where in the U.S. is Missouri, and what we do, and why we do it. I have also enjoyed explaining the electric cooperative business model to my classmates. It is a real mind-bender for them to hear that we sell electricity at cost, and that we are regulated by our customers, not the government. This is foreign concept to most of them.
Tom, Scott, Brent, Steve, Barbara, thank you for covering for me. This is what I really miss . . . working with great people like you.
Global Economic Crisis Day!
I think that now even I could explain what happened; how financial firms turned sub-prime mortgages into mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and CDO-squared, and in doing so spun straw into gold, turning a heap of near-default mortages into something that could be resold as mostly AAA-rated securities. This was an amazing feat of financial engineering! Well, maybe not so amazing as it almost sent the entire planet into a depression.
We also spent more time talking macroeconomics including the U.S. current-account deficit. Here we are borrowing money from China to finance our current consumption, and our kids and grandkids will (probably) have to pay the debt back sometime (unless we get lucky). The situation was equated to Climate Change and our burning of carbon fuels in the U.S., and it was mentioned that our kids will have to pay for that too. We have a special day coming up dedicated to Climate Change and I can hardly wait. I am wondering if I will be able to change any minds on this subject.
So far I haven’t. I am here with a broad cross-section of nationalities that largely believe that the U.S. is taking unfair advantage of the planet and should pay. Their number one suggestion, which I have heard several times, is that the US should increase its fuel tax. This would have several benefits: reduced oil consumption, reduced carbon emissions, reduced trade imbalance, reduced current-account deficit, a balanced federal budget and greater fuel efficiency. I have tried to explain that I don’t believe Oklahoma and Missouri consumers are ready to give up their dooley-pickup trucks, and they just can’t seem to understand. I’ll keep working on this, though
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Coaching
I had the opportuntity to select one from a number of individuals based on their resumes. The coach I have selected has experience in working in the energy business, including a recent coaching assignment with the CEO of a large electric utility system. I don't want to say the name, but can you imagine a large utility system in the east? Very large. One that burns 10x more coal than Associated. Their name starts with "A". Got it?
Monday, September 21, 2009
Here's an idea - peer coaching.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Remembering Doc Blackmore
Doc worked at one of our power plants. Many years ago he was seriously injured in a bicycling accident, and left paralyzed from the neck down. He could do literally nothing for himself. He even relied on a ventilator to breathe (although in the last year he was making progress on a new “pacer” that allowed him to breathe a bit on his own for very short periods of time).
You would think that Doc would have a poor outlook on life. That he would feel sorry for himself. That he might even blame God, or ask “why me”? He did not.
Doc made it his life’s mission to witness to others about the incredible love of God. Can you believe that? He had so little that most of us would think to be thankful for. But he had a voice, and he used it, in between the puffs of his ventilator, to witness to others. In his last years he introduced a number of people to the Lord, and inspired scores of others to redouble their efforts, quit whining, and make the best of the life they have been given.
Every time I met with Doc I came away so uplifted. Do you think spending time with a paraplegic would be depressing, or difficult? Quite the opposite – I felt as if I had been walking with a prince, a man who knew he had a most precious inheritance awaiting him. He was truly rich.
His wife Cindy was also an incredible blessing, not just to her husband, but to hundreds of others who followed her monthly email updates. Again, wouldn’t you expect someone to complain or feel sorry for herself? Not Cindy. She used this opportunity to share the love of God and the many many blessings that she and Doc shared. Their cup truly ran over. How many of us could consider a tragic accident to be a terrific blessing?
Now Doc has been given his reward. He no longer struggles to breathe. And he has a perfect body (ask me how I know – I have a secret to share on this).
I thank God that I had the chance to know Doc Blackmore.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Saturday classes too...
Corporate Fiduciary responsibility - the bottom line - watch out, don't forget your responsibility is first to the corporation.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Reading List
A briefing paper on Capital Investment Project Valuation
General Mills company case (Growth Strategy)
The General Mills Annual Report
Crown Cork & Seal (a classic case study)
Cooper Industries (an Acquisition case)
Briefing paper on how to value a Business Acquisition
Oracle vs. Peoplesoft (dissecting a hostial takeover)
Singapore's growth strategy
International Monetary Principles
A Macroeconomics textbook (I almost have this one finished, its actually pretty fun reading. We meet the author for lunch next week.)
Analysis of Balance Of Payments accounts for selected countries
How Political Forces have shaped India's development
a Micro-Electronics firm in disarray (a study on corporate strategy and managerial focus)
China and its relationship with the World Trade Organization
China's growth strategy
Legal briefs on several cases involving Corporate Governance and Fiduciary Responsibilty
Psychology of Negotiation along with several negotiation simulations
Tea anyone?
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Negotiations and Love Songs
I think some of our contractors have had the same training. :-)
Business Life Cycle (Where are you?)
The typical life cycle of a business:
Business is created.
Growth occurs through CREATIVITY.
A Crisis of Leadership occurs as the business grows and creativity is not longer enough, structure is needed.
Growth continues through DIRECTION. Often this involves adopting a Functional structure to the organization.
A Crisis of Autonomy occurs as the business is hindered from further growth by too much structure.
Growth continues through DELEGATION. Often this involves adoption a Decentralized structure in the organization.
A Crisis on Control occurs as the business is hindered from further growth due to a lack of coordination among the decentralized units.
Growth continues through COORDINATION. Often this involves a Segmentation or Matrix structure.
A Crisis of Red Tape occurs as the business is hindered from further growth due to an overwhelming burden of policies, procedures, and processes.
Growth continues through a return to BASICS and the process repeats all over again.
The question is, where is your organization on this continuum?
Monday, September 14, 2009
Back to School
We also spent some time on the current financial crisis, the subprime houseing market, and credit default swaps. This was a new learning area for me.
Today we started a fascination negotiation unit. We covered research on the psychology of how people approach negotiation. We learned how to analyze the proper time to tender an offer, how to handle another party's early offer, how to analyze their fall-back position. We will continue this unit for two more days, with lots of practice exercise (we practice role playing with each other). By the end we should all be master negotiators. Or at least pretty good. Or at least better than before we started.
I did well in the first exercise, achieving a sales price for my simulated firm that set the bar for our class. I sure hope I can keep this up because now I have a reputation to preserve.
Tomorrow our learning group (seven guys I live with) will be having lunch a professor that is a frequent Wall Street Journal contributor and author of a business strategy book. We have invited several of the professors to meet us this way during the program.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Thought for the day
Imagine a person as a tree. Now imagine that a very successful person is a tree bearing much fruit. We know that when a tree is heavy with fruit, it bends down toward the ground. This is an illustration of that person's humility, in bowing low to the ground, and also of their generousity, since the tree heavy with fruit bends low, making it easier for people to pick the fruit and enjoy it.
To me this sounds like, "to those to whom much is given, much will be expected..." Luke 12:48
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
What are we studying?
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
My Living Group
The CEO of an investment company in Pakistan,
the Managing Director of the largest bank in Brazil,
the Managing Director of the 2nd largest coffee company in the world (no, not Starbucks),
the Malaysian Undersecretary of Finance & Development (works for the government),
the Manager of Planning for the largest producer of plastic films used in flat-panel televisions, headquartered in (guess where) Japan,
the CEO of the largest computer-services data-storage company in Europe, headquartered in Sweden,
and the CEO of an Asian trading company specializing in growing vehicle and generation sales and services in recovering post-conflict eastern countries.
Monday, September 7, 2009
An international mix of participants
This is how they break down by numbers:
8 Aussies
5 from Brazil
1 Australia
1 Belgium
5 Canadians
3 Chileans
7 from China
2 Denmark
4 England
4 France
3 Germany
1 Hungary
7 India
4 Israel
10 from Japan
1 from Kenya
3 from South Korea
1 from Kuwait
4 from Malaysia
3 from Netherlands
2 Kiwi's from New Zealand
3 from Nigeria
1 from Norway
2 from Pakistan
1 from Peru
1 from Philippines
3 from Portugal
1 from Qatar
1 from Romania
1 from Russia
1 from Saudi Arabia
7 from Singapore
4 from South Africa
2 from Spain
1 from Sweden
5 from Switzerland
4 from Thailand
1 from Turkey
33 from the U.S.A.
1 from Ukraine
3 from United Arab Emirate
9 from the United Kingdom
1 from Venzuela
1 from Vietnam
Maybe I'll learn some new languages!
Arrival at Harvard Business School Gate
I now have a very nice secure parking spot in a high-security parking garage. It is so secure I can hardly get it. You have to keep your head down if you are on a motorcycle because the ceiling is so low.
A Japan participant said in our group said, "Wow, 1600 miles by motorcycle with your wife right behind you, that must be very romantic!" I said that it was.
Let's get started
So ends a 1600 motorcycle journey across America's heartland.
And so begins an eight-week educational sabbatical at the world's highest-rated business school.
So if this is a learning journey, what have I learned so far?
First, trust in God. He answered prayers for safe travels. He provided great weather for the trip. I should trust him more. Like the song, "let us ever trust in Jesus."
I saw a sign this afternoon near Harvard Square at the Lutheran Church – it said "God is in the midst of the City" – Psalm 46. God is indeed with us.
I am learning an ever-greater respect for my wonderful wife Lisa. She is a fantastic life partner and friend, one with whom I can share every fear and every dream, and on this trip she also proved that she can keep up with the best iron-butt riders around. You never heard a single complaint from her in over 1600 miles of riding. Not one complaint! She is incredible.
I learned how important the heartland is to America. America is not defined by her great cities, although they are impressive indeed. (Especially approaching them by motorbike). I believe that America is best defined by her land and her people; those that were up at the early hours, farming, delivering, and even feeding their chickens. We got to see this first-hand.
I learned I can ride 1600 miles without too much trouble. It was exhausting, yes. Would I do it again – YES! We saw it all, not from behind a car windshield, in a climate-controlled cube, but out in the open, where we could touch it at any moment.
We smelled it all - the musty swamps of Kentucky near the Mississippi River, the maturing corn fields in Indiana and Ohio, the faint smell of coal in Pennsylvania, the smell approaching rain in Indianapolis, the stench of the inner city, and the wonderful smell of evergreen trees in the Catskills.
We would have missed it all in a car.
And what will I learn in the weeks to come? We’ll have to see how that all develops.