Friday, October 30, 2009
Final class, final day, final advice from Harvard (alternate title: Why would I ride a motorcycle to Boston and back?)
to weep is to risk appearing sentimental,
to reach out to another is to risk involvement,
to expose your feelings is to risk exposing your true self,
to place your ideas and dreams before a crowd is to risk their loss,
to love is to risk not being loved in return,
to live is to risk dying,
to hope is to risk despair,
to try is to risk failure.
But risk must be taken because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing. The person who risks nothing does nothing, has nothing, is nothing.
He may avoid suffering and sorrow, but he cannot learn, feel, change, grow, or live. Chained by his certitude he is a slave who has forfeited all freedom.
Only a person who risks is free.
-William Arthur Ward
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Nearing the End (one day more, one more day, one day more)
- whether to take personal advantage of a “corporate opportunity”
- responding to a fire that destroys your manufacturing operations
- handling a strike over labor contracts at a newly acquired plant
- managing environmental, community, government, and human rights issues
- how to reward top management for closing a proposed merger
- responding to a low-ball hostile takeover bid
- dealing with a potentially serious health risk in a major product line
- responding to a serious global health crisis
- formulating an investment strategy that advances sustainable development
- preventing organizational drift and creating an effective governance system
- deciding on executive pay and responding to activist investors
- dealing with illegality and fostering organizational compliance
- whether to accept a “politically connected” candidate into an internship program (List courtesy Professor Lynne Paine.)
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Steve Jobs - Commencement Address to Stanford University
As we wind our coursework down this week, we were invited to watch this Youtube video. Several classmates found it inspiring. If you have an extra 15 minutes to burn, you might want to watch it.
His advice? "Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish".
What do you think? Comments?
Michael Porter on the Competitiveness of Nations
His main idea on national competitiveness is that it is not what you do, but how productively you do it that determines success. While national prosperity can begin with natural resource endowments, such as oil reserves, simply selling your endowments will not necessarily make your nation rich (the average per-capita annual income in Saudi Arabia is only $3000). To succeed, nations need a good social infrastructure in terms of education systems, health care systems, and good law enforcement. A stable national government, with sound fiscal and monetary policy, is also essential.
Relying on endowments can actually hurt an economy. The easy access to trade revenue allows for low productivity and bad government practices to be masked, leading to continuing inefficiency. In resource-rich countries, the fight is often over how to divide the revenue pie, not over how to make the overall pie larger through greater efficiency.
These same concepts can be applied at a more micro-economic level. Consider the competitiveness of a state, or even a region such as the Missouri bootheel. It is not enough just to have great farmland that can grow cotton and beans; the people of the bootheel will not be prosperous as a whole until their institutions (education, law enforcement, etc.) are also prosperous.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Leading Change
Today we are completing a series of classes on leading organizational change. We have had the privilege to hear from senior executives at several firms that have completed sensational turnarounds: a major South African bank, a Japanese car manufacturer, the largest maker of set-top boxes for cable and satellite reception, a European beer manufacturer, and the UK’s largest newspaper company, to mention a few. These sessions have given us the chance to hear from these individuals, not only regarding what worked well, but also to hear from them and question them about the part that doesn’t always get discussed in the business books, which is where they made their mistakes in implementation and what they learned from the experience. I am very excited about the opportunity to apply these lessons to our plant maintenance activities. At Associated we have made fantastic advances in plant performance from the late 1990’s through about 2004, but since then we have struggled to break records, and our competitiveness with our peers has slipped. When I return I hope to begin the process within our division which will return these plants to a position of excellence. This effort will require cooperation from our entire team. Our employees are the day-to-day guardians of the members’ assets, and they will be the people who will ultimately enable us to succeed.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Investment advice from an old business book...
Saturday, October 24, 2009
What is equity worth to a cooperative?
How should we value the member’s equity held by AECI? One approach would price the equity as if it were being held by a publicly traded, investor-owned utility.
When we retain earnings at AECI we are essentially investing our member’s money in the cooperative for them. Our returns that our customers expect from their investments depends on the riskiness of the investment. If they choose to invest their money in a savings account, they would expect very low returns, but they would be taking very low risk. An investment in a startup company may provide high returns but presents much greater risk.
We could estimate a value for the members’ equity by comparing it with an alternate investment of similar risk. Imagine if, instead of investing their cash in AECI, our members could have invested in a neighboring investor-owned utility, an investment which should present risk simlar to an investment in AECI.
The value (cost) of equity in a publicly-traded company is determined using this formula:
Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Relative Riskiness of IOUs * Average Stock Market Risk Premium
The Risk Free Rate (T-Bill rate) is currently near zero, but over the past 80 years it has averaged 3.8%. In just the last 20 years (ending 2008) it averaged 4.25%.
The relative riskiness of a stock relative to the market can be computed using regression and is known as the stock’s “beta”. The beta of our neighboring utilities is 0.72 for Ameren, 0.79 for Great Plains Energy, and 0.77 for Empire District Electric (showing that Empire and Great Plains are considered a higher risk investment than Ameren). The overall average beta for utilities over a 30-year period has been about 0.75.
The average large company stock market return over the last 80 years has been 11.7%, which represents a 7.9% Average Stock Market Risk Premium (the difference between 11.7 and 3.8).
Using these figures, the long-run cost of equity for a large Midwestern utility should be:
Cost of Equity = 3.8 + (0.75 * 7.9) = 9.725% (say about 10% in round numbers).
What do you think of this approach? Does it make any sense? Should this be our new discount rate? This higher number would bias us toward shorter-term projects, but maybe that is a better approach. I would love to hear your comments.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Outsourcing, Offshoring, Anti-Trust and Integrity
We covered a lot of ground today. Outsourcing. Off-shoring. Anti-trust law. And the best part was a visit by Ben Heineman, former Chief General Counsel for GE (he worked for both Jack Welch and Jeffrey Immelt). Now retired, he has written the book “High Performance and High Integrity.” A group of us had a working lunch discussion with him, talking about governance, trust, and the fiduciary duties of the Board.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Bill George on Authentic (True North) Leadership
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Energy Information
They were handing this book out at the Student Union. I’ll see if I can pick up a few tips for when I return.
CEO Compensation Discussion
Today we talked about executive compensation, a topic debated in Board rooms around the world. Overall, the gap in compensation between entry-level employees and CEOs has been widening in the last ten years (especially in the investment banking sector). This has caused lots of concern, and prompted proposals for new legislation to put a limit on compensation. Our case centered on efforts by the AFL-CIO to force boards to submit compensation plans to a shareholder approval vote.
In our discussion, the Europeans were generally much more willing to entertain a cap on executive pay than the Americans. One common practice that gets close to a cap is to use a programmed structure where a maximum 60% gap exists between senior management and the CEO, for example, if the CEO makes $300,000 the top senior manager would make 60% or $180,000.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Net Promoter Score
On a scale of 1 to 10, those answering 9-10 are “promoters”, 7-8 are “passive”, and 0-6 are “detractors”.
This one simple question can give you a quick read on satisfaction, for retail products, for services, for conference presentations, and for employers. Jeffrey Immelt of GE uses this as his number one tracking metric.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, and currently Chairman of the U.S. Economic Recovery Advisory Board
He doesn't mind protecting banks, but thinks the U.S. should have allowed some of the engineered financial firms fail in the wake of the crisis. As it was, only Lehman was allowed to fail. He doesn't believe that banks should be running hedge funds and CDOs. He mentioned that he had a recent discussion with a Harvard professor and former Nobel prize winner. Mr. Volcker stated that he believed that there was no correlation to show that the massive financial engineering products (that led to the financial crisis) had contributed positively towards U.S. economic performance. The professor replied, "No, but intellectually it is a lot of fun." Too bad that this intellectual economic experiment led to a crash in the world economy.
When asked about the future value of the dollar, at first he dodged the question, on the basis that the former Fed chairman should not offer his opinion of such things. Then he relented and stated that he did NOT believe that the dollar would drop, because China and other nations own far too many (they own 1/2 of our treasury debt) too let the dollar fall. He said, "they may not like the dollar, but where else are they going to put it? In the Euro? No. The Yen? No. The RMB? I don't think China will allow that. So the dollar is going to remain the world currency, because there is still no better option."
On the Fed, "the Federal Reserve Board should not be an economics seminar, it should be a policy-making body." He believes that the Board should not be dominated by economists, but should include non-economists and business leaders.
In case you are wondering (we were) he believes we are in for a long, slow recovery. No quick fix. No surprise.
FBI Director Robert Mueller III
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
A Paparrazzi Moment
Clayton Christensen, author of "The Innovator's Dilemma" and "The Innovator's Solution"
"If the capabilities of the past are what you need for success in the future, stick with them, but, if they are not...."
So, what "core competencies" will be important in the future?
Al Gore's Investment Firm's CEO is teaching us . . . Socially Responsible Investing!
Our case was a debate on whether this firm should invest in ABB-India as they expanded the electric service in India. On the plus side, they would be improving lives by providing basic electric service in an improverished are of India. On the negative, the electricity would be generated almost 100% with coal, increasing global carbon dioxide emissions. Growth of the business (and therefore growth of the stock's value) was expected to be strong. Can you guess what Al Gore's sustainability company decided to do? Wouldn't you think, given their position on global warming, that they would run away from such an investment? No! They put the company on their list, and according to Mr. Blood, the only reason they have not yet invested in the company is because the "returns have not yet been high enough." What do you think of that?
They hope to use their investment position to put pressure on companies to improve their business practices to become more sustainable, "by proxy if necessary." Hmmm...
IBM Strategy Head - Mr. Bruce Harreld
Niall Ferguson - Author of "The Ascent of Money"
Sunday, October 11, 2009
It's just marketing, it's not rocket science . . . or is it?
Saturday, October 10, 2009
The Future of Business Learning
Our discussion became interesting as he offered his opinion on the future of business school education. Last year, 2008, was the 100th anniversary of the Harvard Business School. As part of the celebration of looking back at the last 100 years, he and a colleague were asked to look forward to envision the future of Harvard University. They took their task seriously and undertook what has become a two-year research project into the future of business education.
He first discussed the difference in emphasis between existing business schools on the scale of intellectual Rigor versus practical Relevance. Having previously taught at both Carnegie Mellon and Stanford, he suggested that Harvard has a stronger reputation for Relevance among its peers. Of course he may be biased, but I tend to agree with him.
His research involved a review of hundreds of business school programs and interviews with many corporate CEOs. Based on his research, he and his colleague have written a book, to be released within months, called “Rethinking the MBA”. It will discuss the three key teaching areas for future of business education.
1) Knowing (specific book knowledge, tools and techniques)
2) Doing (how to actually accomplish things outside of the classroom)
3) Being (how to lead groups of people)
In his opinion, business education is unique in that it involves more than just knowing. To be successful in business it is not enough to have book knowledge. As a business leader you MUST accomplish your objectives through the efforts of other people. How people react to you determines to some extent how successful you can be as a leader. He contrasted business education to Law or Medicine or Engineering by saying that business education relies more on the “doing” and “being” skills than just on knowing.
Many business schools focus only on the knowledge and Knowing. This is like teaching someone to swim through lectures and reading. You can read, discuss, and watch videos all day, but that still will not help you to swim when you graduate. There is a reason why we do not teach swimming in a classroom. It is because it is a Doing skill. So is business management.
Their research has discovered techniques now in use at a few schools that truly help to bridge the gap between Knowing and Doing. They have even documented ways that some schools are teaching the Doing skill of innovation.
The third dimension of education in future business schools will be Being skills. This is the skill that some people have which allows them to inspire people, to create trust, to influence and to lead. They have also documented techniques for teaching this skill. In our discussion, Dr. Datar agreed that our use of temporary developmental assignments at Associated Electric achieves the same objective, allowing people to test out some Being skills in real-life situations.
He described four types of critical thinking skills: deductive, inductive, analogical, and integrative thinking, and emphasized the need to teach all types.
When describing the Being skill of leadership, he has documented the change over time from a High Authority/Low Conflict culture towards a developing Low Authority/High Conflict leadership culture. This culture, which is becoming more prevalent in business, requires leadership skills that are different from those that have been taught in the past.
He said that the main challenge facing most MBA students in that in their entire life they have only known people very much like themselves – all very successful, driven, intelligent MBA students. This leaves them ill-prepared to understand what it takes to motivate the broad range of employees (factory workers to phone operators to engineers to accountants) that will be encountered in a typical business. As one CEO that he interviewed put it, “most kids don’t know how to have a conversation with a plumber. They just think of him as someone who shows up to fix the pipes, not as a fellow human being.”
He believes that this gap can be reduced through experiential learning and formal, frequent peer feedback.
He also suggested that we watch the commencement address given by J.K. Rowling to the Harvard business school graduates in 2008. The previous year they had hosted Bill Gates for the commencement address, and when the class of 2008 heard that they were getting an author of children’s books, they were vocally unhappy about the selection. Expectations were low on the day of commencement, but J.K. gave “the most impressive commencement speech ever”. This to him was another example of the Being skill; the ability to synthesize, motivate, and lead, and the kind of skill he would like to see become a routine part of business curricula worldwide.
JK’s commencement address can be viewed in three parts on the links below. The amazing thing she talked to the Harvard MBAs about was failure and imagination, something they probably had never experienced in their life.
JK Rowling Commencement address to Harvard, June 2008
JK Rowling Part 1
JK Rowling Part 2
JK Rowling Part 3
Friday, October 9, 2009
Dinner in the Sukkah
Tonight some of us took a brief break from case studies to walk with some of our Jewish friends to a sukkah. What is a sukkah? It is a temporary tent that Jewish people construct during the annual festival of Sukkot – the festival of Tabernacles or more literally “tents.” The Jews celebrate Sukkot by eating together in temporary tents to remind them of their time in exodus from Egypt and their total reliance on God during those times.
In the sukkah we met with two Rabbi who explained the Jewish traditions surrounding Sukkot, their thoughts on water and wine, and even some interesting talk about the mezuzah. The mezuzah is an ornate case containing a tiny scroll with the shema scripture (Hear O Israel, the Lord is our God, the Lord is One, blessed be the name of His glorious kingdom forever and ever. And you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your might. And these words that I command you today shall be in your heart. And you shall teach them diligently to your children, and you shall speak of them, when you sit at home, and when you walk along the way, and when you lie down and when you rise up. And you shall bind them as a sign on your hand, and they shall be for frontlets between your eyes. And you shall write them on the doorposts of your house and on your gates. -Dueteronomy 6:4-9) As instructed, Jews normally affix this scripture to their doorposts. I had not seen one on the tent, and asked the Rabbi if I had missed it. He explained further the tradition behind the mezuzah and the rabbinical tradition that temporary shelters do not need the mezuzah.
The Jews welcomed about 30 of us, representing many faiths (Christians, Hindus, Muslims, even Jews) into their dwelling, and we shared thoughts and food together.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Bob McDonald, CEO of P&G
1) Everyone wants to succeed – the leader’s job is to help people succeed.
2) Success is contagious – the leader’s job is to catch people succeeding. One success will always lead to another.
3) Put the right people on the right jobs. People like doing what they are good at. They are good at doing what they like. Matching these can lead to better success.
4) Character is the most important trait of a leader. Character means:
- putting the organization’s needs above your own needs;
- taking personal responsibility for failures, giving credit to others for successes.
- Living by your word and actions.
5) Choose the “Harder Right” and not the “Easier Wrong”. This was a slogan from his time at West Point.
6) Ineffective strategy, systems and culture are greater barriers to success than people. Before you blame people, check the systems / culture / strategy the organization supplies to them. It is the leader’s job to improve those.
7) There will be people who will not make it through the journey. It is the leader’s job to help them find another job. As a leader, you need to get to know the person as a person, not just as an employee.
8) Organizations must renew themselves. Growth requires change, and change requires renewal. A leader should supply training and development opportunities for his people to grow.
9) Recruiting is a key priority. Promoting at P&G is done from within the company and performance based.
10) A leader is measured by his / her organization’s performance when he or she is absent or gone. A leader should build the capabilities for the organization. “We want leaders who build watches, not those who tell the time”.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Typical day
After morning exercise at your discretion and breakfast in the cafeteria, we start classes at 8 am. Classes are taught in the "case study" method.. We discuss the business case interactively in class for an hour or so. The cases are usually designed to be gray, not black and white, so there is lots of discussion on both sides of the issue, for example deciding on the appropriate balance of debt and equity in a firm, or how to lead a turnaround, or whether to buy a company or not. The professor moderates the discussion but does not provide an answer. In the last half-hour of the 90 minute class we are usually provided the "answer" (what the company actually did). And then we debate that. The last 10 minutes are lead by the professor in a more typical lecture-style, talking about the relevant theories, pros and cons behind the choices that could have been made.
We then take a half-hour break, and have another 90 minute class, take a lunch hour back in the cafeteria, then another 90 minute class after lunch. In the late afternoon there is sometimes a guest speaker, usually a CEO and Harvard alumnus, speaking and taking questions on their business strategy. Then we get a couple of hours on our own to brief the cases studies for the following day (usually 3 cases with 15 pages plus supplementary exhibits. Financial reports, org charts, market studies, etc).
We then have dinner as a group in the cafeteria and regroup after dinner in our "living group" for two hours or more to discuss the next day's cases.
We retire to our bedrooms, do a little reading or email, and repeat the cycle the next day.